Poverty and Voter Behaviour in Benue State: A Case Study of Guma Local Government Area

Abstract

In Nigeria's Fourth Republic, poverty remains closely associated with electoral behaviour. This study examines the relationship between poverty and voter behaviour among registered voters in Guma Local Government Area, Benue State. A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was adopted, guided by Rational Choice Theory and Clientelism Theory. Using Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) records of registered voters in Guma as the sampling frame, a sample of 400 respondents was determined using the Taro Yamane formula at a 5 per cent margin of error, drawn through multi-stage stratified random sampling across electoral wards. Data were collected using a structured, validated and pilot-tested questionnaire and analysed using frequencies, percentages and mean scores; two hypotheses were tested using the chi-square test of independence at the 0.05 level of significance, with respondents classified into high- and low-poverty groups using a median split of a composite poverty score. The study finds that self-reported poverty is high among sampled voters (grand mean = 3.32) and is significantly associated with susceptibility to vote buying (x2 = 48.53, df = 1, p < .001, Phi = .36) and with patronage-oriented, rather than issue-based, voting (x2 = 40.42, df = 1, p < .001, Phi = .33). These associations are consistent with, but do not establish, the theoretical proposition that material deprivation predisposes voters toward transactional electoral behaviour. The study recommends targeted social protection and livelihood programmes, expanded voter education for poor and displaced communities, and more consistent enforcement of electoral offences relating to vote buying, while noting the need for longitudinal and multivariate research to establish causal pathways.