The Intersection of Political Communication and Identity: Examining the Influence of Demography on Voters’ Choices in Nigeria's 2023 Election as Lessons for the Forthcoming 2027 Polls

Abstract

This study evaluates the forms of political communication deployed in the watershed 2023 presidential election in Lagos State and critically assesses how voters’ demographic traits influenced their ballot decisions, offering vital baseline data and homegrown insights to mitigate ethnic tensions in future electoral cycles. Anchored on the Sociological Model of Voting Behaviour and the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), the study adopted a mixed-methods descriptive survey design. Quantitative data were generated from 600 registered voters systematically selected via multi-stage sampling across Lagos State's three senatorial districts, complemented by thematic analysis of qualitative interviews with nine purposively selected key informants. The findings indicate that while political parties deployed a dense hybrid communication matrix—led by public rallies (90.2%) and television ads (90.0%)—the processing of these communication forms was deeply filtered through demographic variables. Ethnic background (WM = 3.75) and gender (WM = 3.72) emerged as exceptionally strong determinants of final vote choice, while adult status (WM = 3.43), occupation (WM = 3.25), and education levels (WM = 3.13) significantly modified voter preferences. Conversely, religious affiliation (WM = 1.60) was rated as rarely influential in deciding final votes, serving primarily as a participation stimulus. The study concludes that campaign communication does not overwrite pluralistic identities but triggers demographic traits as powerful peripheral cognitive cues. It recommends that ahead of the 2027 polls, campaign managers reject toxic identity baiting in favour of ethically segmented, issue-based cross-cutting communication frameworks.